Early hurricane season outlook: Above average activity expected in Atlantic

Early hurricane season outlook: Above average activity expected in Atlantic

He added that the warmth that hit previous year was nearly a record in terms of recorded Atlantic hurricane seasons, which led to the surge in activity in 2017, leading to the major hurricanes that hit.

The university, the home of late hurricane expert Dr. William Gray, released its 35th annual preseason predictions on Thursday and is leaning toward a "slightly" above-average season.

The forecast calls for 14 named systems - Tropical Storms or Hurricanes - seven Hurricanes and three Major Hurricanes. While above the long-term average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, this forecast is quieter than 2017, which had 17, 10 and six, respectively. A higher number of hurricanes means a greater chance they will hit land.

The 2018 Hurricane Season Could Be As Eventful As 2017, According To Forecasters

Its long-range forecast, which expects seven storms to develop into hurricanes, is similar to those recently issued by private forecasters AccuWeather and WeatherBell Analytics.

And the upcoming season, which begins on June 1 and runs through November 30, could be active as well.

Last years season was a top 10 hurricane season by almost every metric, Klotzbach said.

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"The current weak La Nina event appears likely to transition to neutral ENSO [El Nino-Southern Oscillation] over the next several months, but at this point, we do not anticipate a significant El Nino event this summer/fall", the CSU team said in an extended range forecast. Waters in other parts of the Atlantic remained cooler than average.

Weatherbell explained that the team there believes that hurricane patterns will shift this year, "As far as impact, unlike last year when we plainly had the U.S.in the cross-hairs, this year it looks like the USA will be on the western edge of the highest ACE area (50% or more)".

"The conditions just don't look as strong as what they were a year ago".

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However, during last spring/summer, the waters warmed much faster than normal across most of the Atlantic, and by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the sea surface temperatures were much warmer than normal across most of the tropical Atlantic, providing increased fuel for the hurricanes that formed previous year.

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